Truth be told, my annual predictions for the winners at the Academy Awards has been fair at best. I am no expert and there is a "horse race" element to the proceedings that I think an experienced gambler would be more suited to tackle and would also be able to navigate infinitely better than I could. Even so, it's all in fun and I am so very happy to share this latest edition of my Oscar predictions, which also exists as a version of a television segment which Gene Siskel and Roger Ebert used to call "If We Picked The Winners."
And so, with that, shall we begin?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Amy Adams ("The Master"); Sally Field ("Lincoln"); Anne Hathaway ("Les Miserables"); Helen Hunt ("The Sessions"); Jacki Weaver ("Silver Linings Playbook")
SHOULD WIN: Jacki Weaver
WILL WIN: Anne Hathaway
This category belongs to Anne Hathaway so completely that it is entirely hers to lose. Believe me, I would feel as if the Seventh Seal had been broken in the event that she did not grab the golden statuette but no worries as there is just no way for that to happen. Yes, I thought Hathaway did a marvelous job in "Les Miserables," with her grueling, heartbreaking performance but as I look upon the surprisingly strong category of nominees, my heart just flies out to Jacki Weaver's comparatively quieter work in "Silver Linings Playbook." Unlike Hathaway's work, Jacki Weaver is not an obvious choice as her performance does not leap from the screen and call attention to itself. But what she does do is create, through her anguished silence and rock solid steadiness, the full emotional and psychological history of a Boston family in which key players suffer from debilitating mental illnesses and she is placed in the role of caretaker and long suffering anchor. For me, sometimes the quieter performance speaks the loudest and I would be thrilled if Weaver won this category.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Alan Arkin ("Argo"); Robert De Niro ("Silver Linings Playbook"); Philip Seymour Hoffman ("The Master"); Tommy Lee Jones ("Lincoln"); Christoph Waltz ("Django Unchained")
SHOULD WIN: Tommy Lee Jones
WILL WIN: Tommy Lee Jones
This category is TIGHT!! Five simply outstanding performances all vying for the grand prize, all of whom would be deserving of the congratulatory trophy. But perhaps some more than others to very minuscule degrees. This is a tough category for me to predict but if I were to take the "horse race" element out of the picture and just focus on the performances, I would say that the work from Jones, Waltz and De Niro reached me the deepest. I will give the edge to Tommy Lee Jones as he gave "Lincoln" some real blood, fire and guts as he obviously relished speaking Tony Kushner's wonderful dialogue. But if Waltz or De Niro surprised me and took the prize, I would be equally happy.
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Jessica Chastain ("Zero Dark Thirty"); Jennifer Lawrence ("Silver Linings Playbook"); Emmanuelle Riva ("Amour"); Quvenzhane Wallis ("Beasts Of The Southern Wild"); Naomi Watts ("The Impossible")
SHOULD WIN: Quvenzhane Wallis
WILL WIN: Jessica Chastain
First things first. Let us all rejoice that Meryl Streep wasn't nominated yet again just because!!!! Now back to business. To be fair, I have not seen all five of these particular performances but I do think that these five represent a cinematic anomaly as 2012 provided an unusually large amount of strong, varied, three dimensional roles for actresses to play. That said, I do think that Jessica Chastain will be the route for Oscar to give attention to the controversial "Zero Dark Thirty." But for my money, while Chastain's performance was a good one, it was not a great one and I don't think that her time to nab an Oscar trophy should be right now. For that matter, as excellent as Jennifer Lawrence was in "Silver Linings Playbook," I also don't think it is quite Oscar worthy either. For me, Quvenzhane Wallis delivered something so raw, and almost inexplicable in its power, complexity, directness and fever dream like intensity. Her performance, given at the age of 6, showcased a level of command in a way that I am truly unsure that seasoned actresses could accomplish in the same fashion. And for that matter, who knows if Wallis would be able to deliver this powerfully ever again. But, this time, she did and beautifully so. While I know that young Wallis does not have a chance to win the award, it is obvious that the academy, through this nomination, is more than acknowledging the greatness of her work. But, how amazing would it be if she actually won!
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Bradley Cooper ("Silver Lining Playbook"); Daniel Day-Lewis ("Lincoln"); Hugh Jackman ("Les Miserables"); Joaquin Phoenix ("The Master"); Denzel Washington ("Flight")
SHOULD WIN: Joaquin Phoenix
WILL WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis
As with the Best Supporting Actor category, this particular selection of performances is nothing less than top of the line. As with Anne Hathaway in the Best Supporting Actress category, the award for Best Actor is Daniel Day-Lewis' to lose, plain and simple. Even though I thought that Day-Lewis' performance was a technical marvel, to the point that I could not find even one speck of his past performances or even his real world persona anywhere inside of this haunting portrayal of Abraham Lincoln, I however did find it to be enigmatic to a fault. When I think back to Joaquin Phoenix's flat out unrecognizable work in "The Master," I am dumbstruck by how Phoenix transformed himself into something that was not only completely unlike any performance he has ever given but one that also elicited the role of his life...so far. It was the type of performance that you just do not see coming and when it arrives, the wind is knocked clean out of you due to its force, its level of surprise, unpredictability, complete inability to fully pin down and tame and you just cannot tear your eyes away for even a second. For my money, I would easily forgo Daniel Day-Lewis in less than a heartbeat to award Joaquin Phoenix for his searing performance.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin ("Beasts Of The Southern Wild"); Tony Kushner ("Lincoln"); David Magee ("Life Of Pi"); David O. Russell ("Silver Linings Playbook"); Chris Terrio ("Argo")
SHOULD WIN: Tony Kushner-"LINCOLN"
WILL WIN: Chris Terrio-"ARGO"
It should be stated right up front that all five of these nominees are absolutely excellent and all are prime examples of how the thankless and under-appreciated role of screenwriting should be given a tremendous amount of increased respect. With that, I felt that Tony Kushner's luxuriously written work for "Lincoln" represented some of 2012's finest writing and it was obvious that the film's actors felt exactly the same. Even so, I have this feeling that Chris Terrio's sharp, complex, satirical and provocative work for Ben Affleck's "Argo" will sneak up and take the prize.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola ("Moonrise Kingdom"); Mark Boal ("Zero Dark Thirty"), Michael Haneke ("Amour"); John Gatins ("Flight"); Quentin Tarantino ('Django Unchained")
SHOULD WIN: Quentin Tarantino-"DJANGO UNCHAINED"
WILL WIN: Quentin Tarantino-"DJANGO UNCHAINED"
I am the least confident about this category actually. The key word of this category is original. And with that, there was absolutely NOTHING more original than Quentin Tarantino's screenplay which merged so many different thematic styles, genres and concepts--of such varying degrees, that they should not even fit together--so seemingly effortlessly and undeniably brilliantly. I have my doubts that the Academy will award this powder keg of a film with anything at all aside from the honor of being nominated but Tarantino delivered the goods and raised his own creative bar once again, so if Oscar was going to honor this film at all, it will probably be here.
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: Michael Haneke ("Amour"): Ang Lee ("Life Of Pi"); David O. Russell ("Silver Linings Playbook"); Steven Spielberg ("Lincoln"); Benh Zeitlin ("Beasts Of The Southern Wild")
SHOULD WIN: Ang Lee
WILL WIN: Steven Spielberg
For me, this is the most ridiculously conceived category as I just cannot fathom how the Academy can have nine Best Picture nominees and yet only have five Best Director nominees and then not even nominate certain directors for certain films (Ben Affleck, Kathryn Bigelow, Quentin Tarantino and Tom Hooper), as if they just magically directed themselves. Even so, these fine nominees are the ones we have and out of the ones listed, I wish, from the bottom of my cinematic heart, that Ang Lee is able to take the prize as I believe that "Life Of Pi" was the finest work of his highly illustrious career and it would be wonderful for the industry to acknowledge it as such. Alas, that is not going to happen as I do think this year's awards are really a race between "Lincoln" and "Argo." And seeing that Affleck was not nominated for his film, the legendary Steven Spielberg to take the trophy home for the third time.
BEST PICTURE
Nominees: "Amour," "Argo," "Beasts Of The Southern Wild," "Django Unchained," "Les Miserables," "Life Of Pi," "Lincoln," "Silver Linings Playbook," "Zero Dark Thirty"
SHOULD WIN: "Django Unchained"
WILL WIN: "Argo"
And here we are at the final award of the evening. I have seen eight of the nine nominated films and aside from "Zero Dark Thirty," which I think was effective but highly over-rated, I am pleased overall with the listed titles. As you all know, "Django Unchained" was my favorite film of 2012 so of course, I would wish for that film to be awarded Best picture--but that's not gonna happen by a long shot.
Now, even though "Lincoln" always felt to be to the a perfect Oscar type film to take the biggest award of the night, I was actually never fully convinced that it was a shoo-in. That trepidation became firm once "Argo" surprisingly took the top prize at this year's Golden Globe awards and then has continued to sweep the industry award scene ever since. If Hollywood likes anything even more than prestigious historical dramas, Hollywood loves movies about itself! With "Argo," Hollywood could get the proverbial two birds with one stone. Also, Hollywood just adores a "comeback story" and awarding "Argo" would not only award Ben Affleck even though he was not nominated himself, it would also celebrate his industry resurrection from the tailspin he endured years ago.
As terrific as I thought "Argo" was, I do not think it was the best film of the year by any means as I don't think that Affleck has directed a film that strong just yet...but he is inching closer with each try at bat. Quentin Tarantino's "Django Unchained," for me, was the film this year that outperformed absolutely everything else, and I would jump out of my seat to see the forces behind that film swarm the stage with rock star swagger...but as I already stated, that just ain't gonna happen.
And there you have it, dear readers. Let's see how I do on Sunday night!!!!
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