SAVAGE CINEMA'S OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR 2012

One week from now, all of the answers will be revealed. But for now, I offer to you, my dear readers, my Oscar predictions for this year’s Academy Awards telecast, which will air this Sunday, February 26th. As I have always stated, and despite the eternal glacier pace of the proceedings, the Oscar telecast is my personal Superbowl, my testament to the art and artistry of the cinema. Yet, I do know fully well how political the pageantry happens to be, making the night also function as a horse race fueled by Oscar’s own massively large sense of self-importance. But enough criticism for now and on with the predictions.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Berenice Bejo (“The Artist”); Jessica Chastain (“The Help”); Melissa McCarthy (“Bridesmaids”); Janet McTeer (“Albert Nobbs”); Octavia Spencer (“The Help”)
Should Win: Melissa McCarthy
Will Win: Melissa McCarthy

Usually, this is the first award given and I have to say that this category does represent something of a challenge or handicap as “The Help” seems to be the one obstacle in this category as well as the Best Actress category (which I will from now on refer to as “Meryl Streep And Four Other Women"). Now, for this category Octavia Spencer is nominated for her turn as the long-suffering, tart tongued Southern maid with a skill at making vengeful pies with mysterious ingredients and especially after her win at the Golden Globes, victory for her seems to be inevitable. But there is the matter of Viola Davis’ nomination in the Meryl Streep And Four Other Women category as the best friend and highly noble maid from the same film. There is absolutely no way that Oscar will award two African American women, and from the same film no less, in the same evening. Also, the Academy Awards does tend to have one surprise up its sleeve as well. Now, I have been going back and forth over this one but I have to take my risky move at this moment. Despite my love for Berenice Bejo’s beguiling performance, I am announcing that I think that Melissa McCarthy just may pull an upset victory over Octavia Spencer. If this occurs, this would be a more than deserved win for McCarthy as she was a comedic force of nature with her fearless performance that was as character driven and purposeful as it was riotously funny.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Kenneth Branagh (“My Week With Marilyn”); Jonah Hill (“Moneyball”); Nick Nolte (“Warrior”); Christopher Plummer (“Beginners”); Max von Sydow (“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”)
Should Win: Christopher Plummer
Will Win: Christopher Plummer

Oscar loves a veteran so this category is essentially a showdown between Plummer and von Sydow, both of whom are aged 82 and neither of them have ever received an Academy Award. While von Sydow’s mute performance in “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” seems to be one of the few elements that have been regarded positively for that film, I just think that this is Plummer’s category to lose, especially as he is riding a wave of celebration for his wonderful performance. In my eyes, it would be a fitting win for Christopher Plummer as he was so playful, vibrant, as well as mournful and sorrowful without ever becoming showy or maudlin. His performance was crucially a rare example of witnessing great Fatherhood on screen as the excellent “Beginners” was partially about the story of a man instilling crucial life lessons to his adult son (played by Ewan McGregor) by example and in the face of his impending death from cancer.

MERYL STREEP AND FOUR OTHER WOMEN
Nominees: Glenn Close (“Albert Nobbs”); Viola Davis (“The Help”); Rooney Mara (“The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo”); Meryl Streep (“The Iron Lady”); Michelle Williams (“My Week With Marilyn”)
Should Win: Rooney Mara
Will Win: Viola Davis

For me, this is undeniably the weakest category out of the entire bunch as the tradition of nominating Meryl Streep for absolutely any performance she gives regardless of quality has long grown to be so tiresome. Beyond that, and aside from Rooney Mara’s blistering work in “The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo,” I felt that this category overlooked some of the best leading female performances of the year (most notably Kirsten Dunst in “Melancholia”), in favor of performances that were generally not that well regarded critically or even widely seen, for that matter. When I first heard the nominees, I figured that Michelle Williams would just extend her Golden Globe win into the Oscars. But then, there is Viola Davis, an excellent actress whom I feel has yet to find that GREAT role to knock out of the park and I’m sorry, her work in “The Help” just didn’t cut it for me. But to so many viewers, her work touched a deep nerve and out of what was nominated, this will be the category where Oscar will significantly award the box office smash “The Help.”

BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Demian Bechir (“A Better Life”); George Clooney (“The Descendants”); Jean Dujardin (“The Artist”); Gary Oldman (“Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”); Brad Pitt (“Moneyball”)
Should Win: Jean Dujardin
Will Win: Jean Dujardin

Now this is a tough category! Even with some key omissions like Michael Shannon for “Take Shelter” or Michael Fassbender for “Shame” (which I have not seen as of yet), there was no shortage of strong leading male performances in 2011 especially featuring some of Brad Pitt’s best work and George Clooney’s finest performance to date. Yet, for me, Jean Dujardin is the clearest winner as he had to deliver a performance unlike any other throughout the entire year. In “The Artist,” we were able to fully experience a world of emotions, in a richly performed three dimensional character and completely without the usage of the sound of Dujardin’s voice. He was elegant, hilarious, despairing, magnetic and impossible to take your eyes off of. He was 2011’s ultimate leading man to me and I am deeply rooting for his victory.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Woody Allen (“Midnight In Paris”); J.C. Chandor (“Margin Call”); Asghar Farhadi (“A Separation”); Michel Hazanavicius (“The Artist”); Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig (“Bridesmaids”)
Should Win: Woody Allen
Will Win: Woody Allen

Despite the fact that Woody Allen typically does not attend the Oscars and his desire for the recognition is essentially non-existent, I cannot help but to think that for his 41st film and the highest box office grossing film of his long career, Allen will be awarded handsomely once again (and deservedly so) for his beautiful, magical Parisian odyssey.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees: George Clooney, Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon (“The Ides Of March”); John Logan (“Hugo”); Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan (“Tinker Tailor Solider Spy”); Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash (“The Descendants”); Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zallian (“Moneyball”)
Should Win: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash “The Descendants”
Will Win: Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zallian “Moneyball”

I think that this is the category where the highly acclaimed “Moneyball” will earn a prize. With all of this film’s enormously high regard, including from those who feel that this was the best film of 2011, I just think that films like “The Artist,” “Hugo” and “The Help” are the ones destined to grab the bulk of the glory. That said, this category, feels right to throw “Moneyball” a bone, especially as it was written by two of Hollywood most gifted screenwriters.

BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: Woody Allen (“Midnight In Paris”); Michel Hazanavicius (“The Artist”); Terrence Malick (“The Tree Of Life”); Alexander Payne (“The Descendents”); Martin Scorsese (“Hugo”)
Should Win: Michel Hazanavicius
Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius

To me this is the program’s most difficult category as all five of the nominated films represented some of the highest artistic achievements 2011 had to offer. But for me, the honor feels simple enough. Whichever film I think deserves the top honor of Best Picture, that film’s director should earn the top prize for him or herself as well. So, Michel Hazanavicius’s gloriously helmed ode to the silent era is the clear winner for me.

BEST PICTURE
Nominees: "The Artist," "The Descendants," 'Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close," "The Help," "Hugo," "Midnight In Paris," "Moneyball," "The Tree Of Life," "War Horse"
Should Win: “THE ARTIST”
Will Win: “THE ARTIST”

If you were to have asked me this past summer if a black and white silent movie had the chances of taking home the grand prize at the Academy Awards, I would not have believed you for an instant. But after having seen the film for myself, having gauged the responses of people that have seen it where I live in addition to the general critical response, I think this gorgeously executed piece will be the night’s big winner. “The Artist” was 2011’s tallest artistic achievement for me as it completely represented exactly why we all go to the movies in the first place by celebrating the history of film through a beautifully simplistic story to such a joyously, exuberant, supremely emotional and absorbing degree.

Those are my predictions, dear readers. So, I’ll check in with you again when the show is complete and let’s see how well I guessed the results!