Even the quality of the show itself--as far as the nominees are concerned--is essentially a cinematic horse race where the behind the scenes politics almost rule the day. And yet, every year, I am excited and watch the proceedings from beginning to end and I could never even conceive of ever missing it. My love of the movies and I would suppose the fantasy of Hollywood that has enticed so many shines brightly over even the seediest aspects.
For the very first time, I am going to toss out some predictions of what may occur tomorrow evening in the major categories. Afterwards, I'll have a post-show installment!
So, without any further hesitations...
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penélope Cruz
Nine
Vera Farmiga
Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal
Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick
Up in the Air
Mo'Nique
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
PREDICTION: Mo'Nique
SHOULD WIN: Mo'Nique
I really think that this is her award to lose as she is the favorite and out of the five (and even thought I have not seen "Nine,") it is the performance that rattled me in my seat the most as it was the most unexpected. I have called her performance volcanic and humane and within a few short sequences, said to myself, "Just give her the Oscar right now!" I LOVED Fermiga and Kendrick in "Up In The Air" and found Gyllenhaal to be Jeff Bridges' equal in "Crazy Heart" but Mo'Nique is the one who truly deserves the statuette the most in my eyes.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon
Invictus
Woody Harrelson
The Messenger
Christopher Plummer
The Last Station
Stanley Tucci
The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz
Inglourious Basterds
PREDICTION: CHRISTOPH WALTZ
SHOULD WIN: CHRISTOPH WALTZ
Like the previous category, Waltz is the favorite and it is his category to lose. Again, I have not seen all of the nominated performances so I cannot judge entirely at the best level. That said, it is difficult for me to imagine any of the other performances coming even close to what Waltz achieved in Tarantino's film and in a seamless display of four languages no less.
BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock
The Blind Side
Helen Mirren
The Last Station
Carey Mulligan
An Education
Gabourey Sidibe
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Meryl Streep
Julie & Julia
PREDICTION: SANDRA BULLOCK
SHOULD WIN: GABOURNEY SIDIBE
This is the weakest category typically and that is certainly not the fault of the actresses nominated but the overall weakness of Hollywood to provide strong leading roles for woman in the hundreds of films released each year. Also, this category has a huge problem and that is Meryl Streep, who seems to be nominated just because she is who she is and not necessarily if the performance itself deserves Oscar gold. As much as I enjoyed "Julie and Julia," and how good Streep was in humanizing an iconic figure, I am not certain if it deserves that statuette. This is Bullock's year, this is her coronation ceremony and I will stunned silent if she does not win. I have not seen "The Blind Side" and for so many reasons I just cannot get myself to sit through that one. Who knows if she even deserves that award in the first place. It seems as if this is a chance for Hollywood to award an extremely popular person who starred in the "little movie that could" as it earned an unbelievable $200 million plus at the box office.
For me, if I could wave my magic wand, I would award Sidibe for her work in "Precious" as it was the most unique, most original, most heartbreaking and most unlike anything I have seen Oscar nominate before.
BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges
Crazy Heart
George Clooney
Up in the Air
Colin Firth
A Single Man
Morgan Freeman
Invictus
Jeremy Renner
The Hurt Locker
PREDICTION: JEFF BRIDGES
SHOULD WIN: JEFF BRIDGES
I think this category is quite possibly the strongest, and with all due respect to Colin Firth as I have not had the chance to see his film and George Clooney, who I feel gave the best performance of his career so far, I think it is Jeff Bridges' time, as he has inexplicably not won an Oscar ever before. Yes, there is a sentimentality at work here but I really believe that Bridges' performance was the most complete and invisible as I saw more of a transformation and less of a "performance" as he tricked me into thinking that country singer Bad Blake was real. if he is to win, this is the performance that earns it.
BEST DIRECTOR
Avatar
James Cameron
The Hurt Locker
Kathryn Bigelow
Inglourious Basterds
Quentin Tarantino
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Lee Daniels
Up in the Air
Jason Reitman
PREDICTION: KATHRYN BIGELOW
SHOULD WIN: JASON REITMAN
This is a tricky category because in my mind, whichever film received the award of Best Picture, the director of that film should be honored with the Best Director award. However, that is not how Oscar works for some unexplained reason. Anyhow, the big story here is the contest between James Cameron and Kathryn Bigelow. Cameron, of course, is one of the most popular and profitable directors of all time while Bigelow has shown her unquestionable skills for many years without much recognition. the fact that they were once married adds to the story Oscar and the press care spinning.
Anyhow, the contest has seemingly been boiled down to "Avatar" and "The Hurt Locker" and I think Oscar will give them each some love with Bigelow winning in this category. I will definitely be pleased with that outcome, as she definitely delivered with her blistering work on "The Hurt Locker," but for me, I would jump in the air if Reitman were to win. He made my favorite film of the year and for that, he deserves the prize the most.
BEST PICTURE
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
PREDICTION: "AVATAR"
SHOULD WIN: "UP IN THE AIR"
Now that the Academy has increased their list of nominated films from 5 to 10, I do have to say that overall, this is a fine list as it includes everything from critical favorites, box office smashes and indie darlings. As I stated in the last section, the race has pretty much come down to "Avatar" and "the Hurt Locker," and if they do award Bigelow for her direction of "The Hurt Locker" then James Cameron's 3D science-fiction epic will take away the big prize. I realize that the heat has been turning towards 'The Hurt Locker" in recent weeks and since Cameron has already won for "Titanic" twelve years ago and "Avatar" has taken in even more money than that film, there just may be an upset as many feel Cameron has been awarded so much already.
Now, as you all know, I do not think "Avatar" deserves to win at all, let alone be nominated but I guess I'd rather have that take the prize than "The Blind Side"! Even so, if it does win, I just feel that it would be a sad showing and glorification of box office over cinematic art and it would be the weakest win since the likes of "Gladiator." With "The Hurt Locker," as impressive as it is, it just didn't build into a full experience for me. The film that accomplished that feat the most was "Up In The Air" and if I had that magic wand again, I would give that film the grand prize.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
District 9
Written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
An Education
Screenplay by Nick Hornby
In the Loop
Screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher
Up in the Air
Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner
PREDICTION: JASON REITMAN AND SHELDON TURNER
SHOULD WIN: JASON REITMAN AND SHELDON TURNER
This category leaves me uncertain but I'm going to make the guess that "Up In The Air" will win here as it will not win in the major categories of Best Picture, Actor, Actress and Director. If it does win, it will be a richly deserved one as Reitman adapted the novel wonderfully, with equal measure of wit and pathos. And his additions of the Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick characters were just brilliant.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Hurt Locker
Written by Mark Boal
Inglourious Basterds
Written by Quentin Tarantino
The Messenger
Written by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
A Serious Man
Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
Up
Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter. Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy
PREDICTION: QUENTIN TARANTINO
SHOULD WIN: QUENTIN TARANTINO
The key word for this section is "Original" and there was no screenplay this year more original that this one from one of the most original writers working today. It is just a blessing to hear Tarantino's peerless dialogue set to sequences written with the detail of an accomplished novelist. If he doesn't win, it would be an unforgivable Oscar crime and with all of Tarantino's tales of revenge, they had better watch their collective backs!
There you have it, dear readers! My predictions and magic wand wishes. Enjoy the show and I'll check back once the glitter has faded.
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