Admittedly, I am feeling more than a little foolish going ahead with this latest entry as current tumultuous political events within my city of Madison, WI have made the idea of the Academy Awards telecast and my personal Oscar predictions feel more than a little trite, ridiculous, and useless.
But, here I am writing for myself and writing to you, dear readers, for what else would I do? I think that I should be carrying onwards. not as if to pretend nothing is happening. But because writing about movies is what I love to do and I should not allow that love to be stripped away from me. Life flows onwards and film, being such a big part of my life for almost the entirety of my life, deserves to always be nurtured and tended. So, despite everything and even my own sense of self-doubt and fears of senseless frivolity, here I am.
SAVAGE CINEMA'S 2011 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
On Sunday, February 27th, we will all have the answers to our cinematic questions concerning the winners of this year's Oscar race. And a race it is as much of the nature of predictions such as these has slightly less to do with quality and a tad more to do with Hollywood politics. Certainly, since I have not even seen every single film nominated for an award, I will have to do a fair amount of guess work and play a few political games so here goes...
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
SHOULD WIN: Hailee Steinfeld "True Grit"
WILL WIN: Hailee Steinfeld "True Grit"
I am swinging for the fences right away with a category that logic tells me will go to Melissa Leo for her work in "The Fighter," but I am having this nagging gut feeling and I thought I would go for it anyway. Typically, this category is one of the first awards of the evening and again, logic tells me that the coronation of Melissa Leo is inevitable. Leo is an actress I have long admired, most notably for her work on television's unmatched "Homicide: Life On The Street." She has been working for so very long and now seems to be the time to anoint her with Oscar gold--especially as she has been campaigning for herself heavily with a glammer than glam series of promotional "For Your Consideration" photos. She obviously wants this win very badly.
Now, for me, as good of an actress as Leo is, I felt her work in "The Fighter" to be more of a caricature than her playing a full blown character. Amy Adams, from the same film, gave a much stronger performance but I don't think it's quite time for her to receive that Oscar yet. For me, my favorite performance--and the one I think that the Academy will not ignore--was from someone who I felt was nominated in the wrong category as her performance was really a Leading Actress role. Young Hailee Steinfeld from "True Grit" gave a performance of such rigidly unsentimental command and authority while also working her mouth around mountains of essentially archaic language so effortlessly that it felt to be her natural manner of speech. And she more than held her own with Jeff Bridges and Matt Damon. Oscar has loved giving awards to children in the past, like Tatum O'Neal from "Paper Moon" (1973) and Anna Paquin from "The Piano" (1993). Oscar also loves the Coen Brothers, and also "True Grit" has turned into the biggest box office hit of their career so far. A win for Steinfeld is something I would love to see and it would be the icing on the cake, as it were. This is a risky prediction sure, but Oscar does like to have at least one big surprise so who knows?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
SHOULD WIN: Geoffrey Rush "The King's Speech"
WILL WIN: Christian Bale "The Fighter"
Bale is also on his way to an Oscar coronation this year as his performance as the drug addicted boxing washout has already garnered major awards throughout this season. As mesmerizing as he was, and as much as I love his work, he also felt to be a bit of a caricature than a character. It was perhaps a bit too flashy, too showy, too much of an obvious Oscar pick.
As much as I absolutely loved Mark Ruffalo in "The Kids Are All Right," so much so that I believe it to be his finest performance to date, I don't think it quite holds a candle to Geoffrey Rush's work as speech therapist Lionel Logue. It was a Master Class in acting that never once called attention to itself or pandered for Oscar glory. His work was brilliantly symbiotic with Colin Firth's as the greatness of each man could not have been achieved without the other. That said, I think Christian Bale will glide onto the stage Sunday night and grab the statuette.
BEST ACTRESS
SHOULD WIN: Natalie Portman "Black Swan"
WILL WIN: Natalie Portman "Black Swan"
If "Black Swan" had not been released this year, I believe that this category would be Annette Bening's to lose as her performance in "The Kids Are All Right" was beautifully outstanding. But, "Black Swan" was released this year and Natalie Portman gave the performance of her life. She has never been this devastating and no other actress pulled off what she accomplished. As I said in my original review, just dispense with this section of the program and any other preamble and just give Portman the award.
BEST ACTOR
SHOULD WIN: Colin Firth "The King's Speech"
WILL WIN: Colin Firth "The King's Speech"
Remember how I just said that Geoffrey Rush's performance in "The King's Speech" was symbiotic with Firth's so that both men were able to shine at their brightest? That is why I am picking Firth to finally get his Oscar due with his heartbreaking but never cloying or sentimental performance that instantly found the recognizable humanity of a man drowning in his own lack of self-confidence.
This is a difficult choice as this particular category is packed tightly with one great performance after another, especially Jesse Eisenberg's enigmatic and searing work in "The Social Network" and James Franco's powerfully singular and naturalistic performance in "127 Hours." Since Franco is hosting the telecast, he certainly will not win. I think that this night will be Colin Firth's night and he more than deserves the illustrious honor.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
SHOULD WIN: Christopher Nolan "Inception"
WILL WIN: David Seidler "The King's Speech"
For whatever reason, Oscar seems to have some issue with Christopher Nolan and I cannot figure out what it may be as Nolan tends to be quite unassuming as far as public relations are concerned. He is a major player as a top Hollywood filmmaker but he has been shockingly and unfairly snubbed in regards to recognition for his work. So, while his screenplay for "Inception" is easily the most inventive, creative and decidedly original one of the bunch, I think the Academy will set its sights upon David Seidler's excellent work with "The King's Speech." Also, Seidler's personal backstory--where he was diagnosed with cancer and he wrote the original stage version feeling that he would die, only to be blessed with remission--is precisely the type of human quality element that Oscar loves.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
SHOULD WIN: Aaron Sorkin "The Social Network"
WILL WIN: Aaron Sorkin "The Social Network"
This is as much of a slam duck as Natalie Portman winning for Best Actress as there is just no question in my mind of which adapted screenplay is the shining star of an illustrious bunch. Sorkin's dialogue, character development and structure is unmatched and in many ways, unreachable and since I think Oscar night will belong to "The King's Speech," here will be a way for Oscar to honor one of 2010's most celebrated films.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
SHOULD WIN: "How To Train Your Dragon"
WILL WIN: "Toy Story 3"
Obvious, of course as Pixar is beginning to be the animated film version of Meryl Streep's nearly annual nomination at the Academy Awards. As Pixar has been deservedly nominated time and again for their almost always untouchable work, and as good as "Toy Story 3" is, I still feel, so very strongly, that "How To Train Your Dragon" is the better film. However, since Pixar has been nominated in this category and the Best Picture category, it will be crowned the "2010 King Of Animation" undoubtedly.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
SHOULD WIN: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross "The Social Network"
WILL WIN: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross "The Social Network"
Most film scores are admittedly unremarkable splashes of sonic wallpaper but for this category, the Academy got it right by celebrating a variety of film music compositions and composers who truly created innovative and memorable works that even stand out strongly on their own existing as pieces of music to dive into without the film it is connected to.
Legendary composer Hans Zimmer struck gold again with a challenging, disturbing score for "Inception" while A.R. Rathman, previously awarded for his work on "Slumdog Millionaire" (2008) also succeeded grandly with his work on "127 Hours." But for my money, it was Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross' first time at the cinematic scoring bat that will take home the gold as they created a soundscape of existential dread that perfectly underscored the diminishing humanity of Facebook creator Mark Zuckerberg and our increased alienation as a society becoming more reliant upon the virtual world. Reznor and Ross...ahem...nailed it!
BEST DIRECTOR
SHOULD WIN: Darren Aronofsky
WILL WIN: David Fincher
I'll spare you the continuous rancor I feel whenever I am reminded that Christopher Nolan was not nominated for his tremendous direction of "Inception" while the film itself is nominated for Best Picture. So, grudgingly, I'll move ahead and deal with the reality of the nominations.
As this category is also one of the strongest and toughest yet, (I'm sorry) I would easily replace the presence of David O. Russell with Nolan as Russell's "The Fighter" was disappointingly the most pedestrian film this usually risky and idiosyncratic filmmaker has directed to date while Nolan easily pushed the medium that much forwards. Yet, the one filmmaker who pushed the medium to its highest peak for me was Darren Aronofsky whose "Black Swan" was an experience like no other in 2010 and for me, he should easily receive the highest honor. But, "Black Swan," despite its box office success, is a defiantly polarizing film so Oscar voters certainly would not give him the grand prize. The Coen Brothers have already been given much love by the Academy so I do not think they'll receive the grand prize either.
So...that leaves David Fincher, director of such films as "Se7en" (1995), "Fight Club" (1999), "Panic Room" (2002) and "Zodiac" (2007) and this year's outstanding "The Social Network." I think this year will be his time to claim the big prize as he more than deserves it, for his career thus far as especially for his latest work, easily one of his finest films.
BEST PICTURE
SHOULD WIN: "Black Swan"
WILL WIN: "The King's Speech"
Out of the ten nominees for Best Picture, I have seen 9 (I just haven't had the opportunity to view "Winter's Bone" yet). It is an excellent list overall, although if I could wave my cinematic magic wand, I would remove "The Fighter" and "Toy Story 3" and replace them with either Ben Affleck's "The Town," or Mark Romanek's "Never Let Me Go." And so it goes...
If you have not nodded off during any point of these predictions and have been following everything so far, it should be obvious that I am wishing for "Black Swan" to claim the title of Best Picture as for me, this film was cinema to behold. But...again it is a polarizing film, extremely dark, difficult and perhaps too intense for some viewers to truly enjoy so I am certain it doesn't hold a chance and furthermore, honoring Natalie Portman would be recognition enough.
The one nominated film that seems to measure up to the pageantry, the pomp, the circumstance, and the regality of the Oscars...the one that seems like the most obvious choice to receive the highest honor is unquestionably Tom Hooper's "The King's Speech." It is a film of honest, unsentimental emotion as well as a beautiful and compassionate testament to what can be accomplished when people selflessly band together for a common goal, earning respect, trust, self-confidence and dignity in the process.
Hmmm...after writing those words, perhaps this exercise was not so pointless after all.
See you Sunday night!!
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